Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 45

New Orleans Saints 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:44) 43-M.Hayball punts 37 yards to GB 8, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 11-J.Reed. PENALTY on GB-55-K.Enagbare, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at GB 8.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.54 EP
71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.56 EP

KICK -1.31 EP

38% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
62% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model