Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 70

New Orleans Saints 0 – Green Bay Packers 14

(9:32) 43-M.Hayball punts 37 yards to GB 33, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.00 EP
65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model