4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
ARI Away

Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Dave Canales
Sunday 2024-12-22 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread -5.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

ARI
63.3%
CAR
36.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: +0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Bryce Young (CAR): -0.142 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CAR offense: -0.090 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 25
–
CAR 19
Projected margin: ARI by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

ARI

Trey Benson RB Out Ankle
Paris Johnson T Out Knee
Jesse Luketa LB Out Thigh
Mack Wilson LB Out Concussion
Elijah Jones CB Out Ankle
Matt Prater K Out Left Knee
Hjalte Froholdt C Questionable Illness
Evan Brown G Questionable Neck
DeeJay Dallas RB Questionable Illness
Roy Lopez DT Questionable Ankle
Sean Murphy-Bunting CB Questionable Hand

CAR

Xavier Legette WR Out Hip
Ikem Ekwonu T Questionable Illness
Robert Hunt G Questionable Illness
A'Shawn Robinson DE Questionable Knee
Jadeveon Clowney LB Questionable Knee
David Moore WR Questionable Concussion
Jalen Coker WR Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 30
–
CAR 36

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:00 TD CAR (5:00) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – CAR 6
  • Q2 14:41 FG ARI (14:41) 38-C.Ryland 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy. ARI 3 – CAR 7
  • Q2 11:44 TD CAR (11:44) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles left end for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ARI-23-S.Murphy-Bunting, Illegal Contact, declined. ARI 3 – CAR 13
  • Q2 08:01 TD CAR (8:01) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 3 – CAR 19
  • Q2 06:02 TD ARI (6:02) 6-J.Conner left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 9 – CAR 20
  • Q2 00:11 TD ARI (:11) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 20-D.Dallas for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 16 – CAR 20
  • Q3 09:34 FG CAR (9:34) 4-E.Pineiro 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. ARI 17 – CAR 23
  • Q3 05:03 FG ARI (5:03) 38-C.Ryland 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy. ARI 20 – CAR 23
  • Q4 12:10 TD CAR (12:10) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 83-D.Moore for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 20 – CAR 29
  • Q4 07:03 TD ARI (7:03) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray right end for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 26 – CAR 30
  • Q4 00:02 FG ARI (:02) 38-C.Ryland 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy. ARI 30 – CAR 30
  • Q5 03:24 TD CAR (3:24) 62-C.Zavala reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard right tackle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 30 – CAR 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (13:05) 10-M.Palardy punts 34 yards to CAR 20, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-58-J.Okwara. PENALTY on ARI-46-A.Brewer, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 20.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 21
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 90%

    (8:48) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to ARI 14 for 7 yards (24-S.Thomas).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (6:30) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to ARI 4 for 1 yard (95-K.Tonga; 51-K.Barnes).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 78%

    (14:41) 38-C.Ryland 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (4:27) 10-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to ARI 32, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 4-G.Dortch.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 4 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 96%

    (9:34) 4-E.Pineiro 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 7 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%

    (5:03) 38-C.Ryland 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 7 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 45%

    (1:09) 10-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (:12) 10-M.Palardy punts 37 yards to CAR 40, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Thompkins to CAR 42 for 2 yards (32-J.Blount). ARI-32-J.Blount was injured during the play.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 15 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (5:00) 10-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to ARI 38, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-S.Franklin.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 8 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:57) 10-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to ARI 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 26 for 13 yards (21-N.Scott; 45-C.Gill).