4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 12

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Carolina Panthers 23

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 38-C.Ryland 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-10-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.82 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP