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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 15 at the 75

Carolina Panthers 30 – Arizona Cardinals 27

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 10-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to ARI 38, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-S.Franklin.

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.67 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model