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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 54

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:05) 10-M.Palardy punts 34 yards to CAR 20, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-58-J.Okwara. PENALTY on ARI-46-A.Brewer, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.59 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 54, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 16, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP