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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 43

Carolina Panthers 23 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 10-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.60 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 43, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.66 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model