Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 75

Carolina Panthers 20 – Arizona Cardinals 10

(4:27) 10-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to ARI 32, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 4-G.Dortch.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.54 EP
54% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 75, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model