Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q1
Carolina Panthers
4th & 1 at the 21
Carolina Panthers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0
What Actually Happened
(8:48) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to ARI 14 for 7 yards (24-S.Thomas).
The Three Options
GO
+3.06 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.84 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
KICK
+1.77 EP
- 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
- 10% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 31, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT
+0.30 EP
- Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
