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HC Sean McDermott
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Sunday 2024-12-15 · 16:25 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 55.5

Win Probability

BUF
48.2%
DET
51.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.264 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • DET offense: +0.151 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • DET defense: -0.091 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to DET: Jared Goff (DET) +0.285 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.236 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET on 3 more days rest than BUF

Predicted Final Score

BUF 25
–
DET 26
Projected margin: DET by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

BUF

Rasul Douglas CB Out Knee
Tylan Grable T Questionable Groin
Dalton Kincaid TE Questionable Knee
Quintin Morris TE Questionable Shoulder
Dawuane Smoot DE Questionable Wrist
Baylon Spector LB Questionable Calf
Damar Hamlin S Questionable Back
Taylor Rapp S Questionable Neck
Casey Toohill DE Questionable Ribs

DET

Trevor Nowaske LB Out Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 48
–
DET 42

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 39 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:58 TD BUF (10:58) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – DET 0
  • Q1 02:05 TD BUF (2:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – DET 0
  • Q2 13:45 TD DET (13:45) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 17-T.Patrick for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 14 – DET 6
  • Q2 08:19 TD BUF (8:19) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 20 – DET 7
  • Q2 03:08 TD DET (3:08) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 16-J.Goff pass short left to 70-D.Skipper for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 21 – DET 13
  • Q3 13:20 TD BUF (13:20) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook left tackle for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 27 – DET 14
  • Q3 03:34 TD BUF (3:34) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 34 – DET 14
  • Q3 01:52 TD DET (1:52) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 14-A.St. Brown for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 35 – DET 20
  • Q4 14:06 FG BUF (14:06) 2-T.Bass 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 38 – DET 21
  • Q4 12:09 TD DET (12:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 26-J.Gibbs for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 38 – DET 27
  • Q4 11:55 TD BUF (11:55) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 22-R.Davis for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 44 – DET 28
  • Q4 08:07 TD DET (8:07) (Shotgun) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 45 – DET 34
  • Q4 02:06 FG BUF (2:06) 2-T.Bass 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 48 – DET 35
  • Q4 00:16 TD DET (:16) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 9-Ja.Williams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 48 – DET 41

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:15) 3-J.Fox punts 60 yards to BUF 10, Center-49-H.Hatten. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 27 for 17 yards (33-S.Vaki).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 18 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (7:55) 3-J.Fox punts 48 yards to BUF 19, Center-49-H.Hatten. 29-B.Codrington pushed ob at BUF 22 for 3 yards (33-S.Vaki).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 2 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 34%

    (10:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 26-Ty.Johnson pushed ob at DET 20 for 31 yards (31-K.Joseph).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 4 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 46%

    (5:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to BUF 25 for 21 yards (39-C.Lewis).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (1:47) 2-T.Bass 24 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 75%

    (:42) 39-J.Bates 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 15 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:29) 3-J.Fox punts 59 yards to BUF 16, Center-49-H.Hatten. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 21 for 5 yards (46-J.Campbell; 13-C.Reynolds). PENALTY on BUF-85-Q.Morris, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at BUF 16.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (7:12) 8-S.Martin punts 51 yards to DET 4, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-13-M.Hollins.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 78%

    (14:06) 2-T.Bass 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 65 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (1:35) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown pushed ob at DET 41 for 6 yards (5-K.Elam).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 36 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.40 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 70%

    (:40) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to BUF 34 for 2 yards. Lateral to 26-J.Gibbs ran ob at BUF 13 for 21 yards (39-C.Lewis).