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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 55

Buffalo Bills 28 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 8-S.Martin punts 51 yards to DET 4, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-13-M.Hollins.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.69 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 55, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 16, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP