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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 32

Buffalo Bills 35 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(14:06) 2-T.Bass 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.10 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 32, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 42, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model