4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 51

Buffalo Bills 14 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(10:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 26-Ty.Johnson pushed ob at DET 20 for 31 yards (31-K.Joseph).

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.53 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 51, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -1.62 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.14 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -1.04 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model