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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 34

Detroit Lions 14 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(:42) 39-J.Bates 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.17 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 34, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 44, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model