Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 75

Detroit Lions 14 – Buffalo Bills 28

What Actually Happened

(11:29) 3-J.Fox punts 59 yards to BUF 16, Center-49-H.Hatten. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 21 for 5 yards (46-J.Campbell; 13-C.Reynolds). PENALTY on BUF-85-Q.Morris, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at BUF 16.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.20 EP
68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 75, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model