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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 65

Detroit Lions 35 – Buffalo Bills 48

What Actually Happened

(1:35) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown pushed ob at DET 41 for 6 yards (5-K.Elam).

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.33 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 65, worth -2.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 23, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model