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Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
@
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2024-12-08 · 13:00 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

CLE
29.0%
PIT
71.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.100 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • PIT offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • PIT defense: -0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Jameis Winston (CLE): -0.014 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CLE defense: +0.059 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 18
–
PIT 25
Projected margin: PIT by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

CLE

Maurice Hurst DT Out Ankle
Sam Kamara DT Out Concussion
Cedric Tillman WR Out Concussion
Jedrick Wills T Out Knee
Myles Harden CB Questionable Tibia
Juan Thornhill S Questionable Calf
Jamari Thrash WR Questionable Shoulder

PIT

Montravius Adams DT Out Knee
George Pickens WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 14
–
PIT 27

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:35 FG PIT (9:35) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. CLE 0 – PIT 3
  • Q1 05:57 TD CLE (5:57) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass deep middle to 3-J.Jeudy for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – PIT 3
  • Q2 11:04 TD PIT (11:04) (Shotgun) 22-N.Harris up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – PIT 9
  • Q2 04:27 FG PIT (4:27) 9-C.Boswell 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. CLE 7 – PIT 13
  • Q3 08:41 TD PIT (8:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 11-V.Jefferson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – PIT 19
  • Q3 03:56 TD PIT (3:56) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [63-T.McGill]. CLE 7 – PIT 26
  • Q4 07:25 TD CLE (7:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short right to 85-D.Njoku for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 13 – PIT 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (13:43) 8-C.Waitman punts 60 yards to CLE 3, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 87-K.Toney to CLE 17 for 14 yards (15-B.Skowronek; 28-M.Killebrew).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 96%

    (9:35) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 15 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:43) 8-C.Waitman punts 38 yards to CLE 37, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 7 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 49%

    (2:05) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 31 yards to PIT 10, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-40-N.Watson. ** Injury Update: CLE-31-M.Ford has returned to the game.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (:56) 8-C.Waitman punts 54 yards to CLE 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 87-K.Toney to CLE 38 for 11 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 11 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (14:50) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:37) 8-C.Waitman punts 48 yards to CLE 28, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 87-K.Toney to CLE 47 for 19 yards (15-B.Skowronek).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (10:12) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 55 yards to PIT 10, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 19-C.Austin to PIT 19 for 9 yards (29-C.Mitchell; 37-Da.Bell).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 2 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 63%

    (4:27) 9-C.Boswell 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 7 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 91%

    (:28) 7-D.Hopkins 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 14 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 85%

    (12:44) 7-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 28%

    (5:50) 34-J.Ford left end to CLE 46 for -5 yards (50-E.Roberts).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 82%

    (:49) (No Huddle) 5-J.Winston up the middle to PIT 25 for 2 yards (25-D.Elliott).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (13:14) 8-C.Waitman punts 55 yards to CLE 36, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 87-K.Toney. PENALTY on CLE-87-K.Toney, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 36.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 3 at the 72
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (11:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short middle to 85-D.Njoku to CLE 40 for 12 yards (41-P.Wilson). Pittsburgh challenged the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short middle to 85-D.Njoku to CLE 31 for 3 yards (31-B.Bishop).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:41) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short left to 8-E.Moore ran ob at PIT 46 for 9 yards.