4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 27

Cleveland Browns 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 27

What Actually Happened

(:49) (No Huddle) 5-J.Winston up the middle to PIT 25 for 2 yards (25-D.Elliott).

The Three Options

GO +2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.25 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 37, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model