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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 81

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(:56) 8-C.Waitman punts 54 yards to CLE 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 87-K.Toney to CLE 38 for 11 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.98 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 81, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 38, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP