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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Cleveland Browns
4th & 1 at the 49
Cleveland Browns 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20
What Actually Happened
(5:50) 34-J.Ford left end to CLE 46 for -5 yards (50-E.Roberts).
The Three Options
GO
+0.98 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.74 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
KICK
-1.55 EP
- 28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
- 72% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT
-0.41 EP
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
