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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 72

Cleveland Browns 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 27

What Actually Happened

(11:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short middle to 85-D.Njoku to CLE 40 for 12 yards (41-P.Wilson). Pittsburgh challenged the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short middle to 85-D.Njoku to CLE 31 for 3 yards (31-B.Bishop).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.29 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model