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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 41

Cleveland Browns 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:05) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 31 yards to PIT 10, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-40-N.Watson. ** Injury Update: CLE-31-M.Ford has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.46 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model