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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Dave Canales
Sunday 2024-12-01 · 16:05 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

TB
69.3%
CAR
30.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.155 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.162 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • CAR offense: -0.115 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to TB: Andy Dalton (CAR) -0.085 vs Baker Mayfield (TB) +0.154 EPA/dropback
  • TB defense: +0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 27
–
CAR 19
Projected margin: TB by 8 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

TB

Tykee Smith S Out Knee
Jordan Whitehead S Out Pectoral
Markees Watts LB Out Knee
Joe Tryon LB Doubtful Ankle
Anthony Nelson LB Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
Troy Hill CB Questionable Ankle
Tristan Wirfs T Questionable Knee

CAR

Jalen Coker WR Out Quadricep
Ja'Tavion Sanders TE Out Neck
Amare Barno LB Questionable Knee
Nick Scott S Questionable Hamstring
Jadeveon Clowney LB Questionable Knee
Caleb Farley CB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 26
–
CAR 23

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:34 TD TB (4:34) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – CAR 0
  • Q1 00:52 FG CAR (:52) 4-E.Pineiro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. TB 7 – CAR 3
  • Q2 07:54 TD CAR (7:54) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 7 – CAR 9
  • Q2 03:42 FG TB (3:42) 4-C.McLaughlin 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-16-T.Gill. TB 10 – CAR 10
  • Q2 00:07 FG CAR (:07) 4-E.Pineiro 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. TB 10 – CAR 13
  • Q3 00:22 FG CAR (:22) 4-E.Pineiro 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. TB 10 – CAR 16
  • Q4 08:58 TD TB (8:58) 7-B.Irving left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 16 – CAR 16
  • Q4 03:08 FG TB (3:08) 4-C.McLaughlin 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-16-T.Gill. TB 20 – CAR 16
  • Q4 00:36 TD CAR (:36) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 20 – CAR 22
  • Q4 00:03 FG TB (:03) 4-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-16-T.Gill. TB 23 – CAR 23
  • Q5 02:54 FG TB (2:54) 4-C.McLaughlin 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-16-T.Gill. TB 26 – CAR 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (14:15) 10-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to TB 26, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 11 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:46) 16-T.Gill punts 54 yards to CAR 21, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-86-E.Deckers.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (10:45) 10-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to TB 37, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-53-C.Cherelus.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 11
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 97%

    (6:43) 1-R.White up the middle to CAR 9 for 2 yards (56-T.Wallace, 8-J.Horn).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 80%

    (:52) 4-E.Pineiro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (15:00) 16-T.Gill punts 52 yards to CAR 21, Center-86-E.Deckers. 3-R.Blackshear to CAR 24 for 3 yards (32-J.Hayes).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 92%

    (11:43) 4-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (3:42) 4-C.McLaughlin 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 3 at the 27
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 84%

    (1:45) 4-E.Pineiro 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 3 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (:07) 4-E.Pineiro 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:42) 16-T.Gill punts 47 yards to CAR 12, Center-86-E.Deckers. 83-D.Moore to CAR 19 for 7 yards (53-V.Jones).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 7 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 37%

    (9:38) 10-J.Hekker punts 26 yards to TB 21, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-T.Palmer.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 16 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:40) 16-T.Gill punts 53 yards to CAR 12, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-32-J.Hayes. Penalty on CAR-3-R.Blackshear, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on TB-53-V.Jones, Face Mask, offsetting.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 4 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (5:42) 10-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to TB 33, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-32-L.Johnson.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (:22) 4-E.Pineiro 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:26) 10-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to TB 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-T.Palmer.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 7 at the 8 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (3:08) 4-C.McLaughlin 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-16-T.Gill.