4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 70

Carolina Panthers 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(7:26) 10-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to TB 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-T.Palmer.

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.88 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model