Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 16 at the 65

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(6:40) 16-T.Gill punts 53 yards to CAR 12, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-32-J.Hayes. Penalty on CAR-3-R.Blackshear, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on TB-53-V.Jones, Face Mask, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.68 EP
68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model