Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 75

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

(12:46) 16-T.Gill punts 54 yards to CAR 21, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-86-E.Deckers.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.60 EP
61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model