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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 82

Carolina Panthers 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:42) 10-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to TB 33, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-32-L.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.95 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.88 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 40, worth -1.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model