Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 47

Carolina Panthers 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

(9:38) 10-J.Hekker punts 26 yards to TB 21, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-T.Palmer.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.41 EP
63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.57 EP

KICK -1.05 EP

37% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
63% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model