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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 70

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:45) 10-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to TB 37, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-53-C.Cherelus.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.75 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP