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Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald
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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
Sunday 2024-12-01 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

SEA
40.0%
NYJ
60.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ on 7 more days rest than SEA
  • NYJ offense: -0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • SEA offense: -0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • NYJ defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • SEA defense: +0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 21
–
NYJ 23
Projected margin: NYJ by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

SEA

Stone Forsythe T Out Hand
Uchenna Nwosu LB Out Thigh
A.J. Finley S Questionable Ankle
Brady Russell TE Questionable Foot

NYJ

Tyron Smith T Out Neck
Breece Hall RB Questionable Knee
Xavier Newman-Johnson G Questionable Concussion
Chuck Clark S Questionable Shin
Jake Hanson G Questionable Hamstring
C.J. Mosley LB Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 26
–
NYJ 21

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:29 TD NYJ (3:29) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – NYJ 6
  • Q1 01:50 TD NYJ (1:50) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 32-I.Davis for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – NYJ 12
  • Q2 10:59 TD SEA (10:59) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 88-A.Barner for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – NYJ 14
  • Q2 10:53 TD NYJ 5-J.Myers kicks 64 yards from SEA 35 to NYJ 1. 34-K.Nwangwu for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 7 – NYJ 20
  • Q2 07:53 TD SEA (7:53) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 5-G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 99-L.Williams at SEA 8. 99-L.Williams for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 13 – NYJ 21
  • Q2 04:20 FG SEA (4:20) 5-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 16 – NYJ 21
  • Q4 13:16 FG SEA (13:16) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 19 – NYJ 21
  • Q4 05:37 TD SEA (5:37) 26-Z.Charbonnet left guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SEA-88-A.Barner, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. Penalty on NYJ-95-Q.Williams, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. SEA 25 – NYJ 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:42) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to NYJ 13, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (11:50) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to SEA 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 33-D.Williams to SEA 39 for 6 yards (19-I.Charles).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.59 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 22%

    (9:35) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 31%

    (6:02) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 17-D.Adams.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 5 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 63%

    (4:20) 5-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 26%

    (1:12) 6-T.Morstead punts 35 yards to SEA 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 4 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (:14) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to NYJ 36, Center-41-C.Stoll. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 36 for no gain (22-T.Brown).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 46%

    (11:47) 6-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (5:32) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at NYJ 16 for -15 yards (56-Qi.Williams).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 41%

    (:16) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at NYJ 20 for 24 yards (30-M.Carter).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 15 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 85%

    (13:16) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:41) 6-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to SEA 29, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 46 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 36%

    (3:31) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at SEA 41 for 5 yards (27-T.Woolen).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 34 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 68%

    (:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 5-G.Wilson [8-C.Bryant].