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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 44

Seattle Seahawks 16 – New York Jets 21

What Actually Happened

(:16) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at NYJ 20 for 24 yards (30-M.Carter).

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.17 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 44, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model