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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 79

Seattle Seahawks 16 – New York Jets 21

What Actually Happened

(:14) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to NYJ 36, Center-41-C.Stoll. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 36 for no gain (22-T.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.11 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 79, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 36, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model