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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 84

New York Jets 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(11:50) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to SEA 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 33-D.Williams to SEA 39 for 6 yards (19-I.Charles).

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.28 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 84, worth -4.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 42, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model