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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 25

Seattle Seahawks 16 – New York Jets 21

What Actually Happened

(13:16) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.19 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 25, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 35, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model