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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 50

New York Jets 21 – Seattle Seahawks 16

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 6-T.Morstead punts 35 yards to SEA 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.68 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 50, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model