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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 42

New York Jets 21 – Seattle Seahawks 16

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 6-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.18 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 42, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model