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Las Vegas Raiders

HC Antonio Pierce
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Friday 2024-11-29 · 15:00 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 13.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

LV
22.7%
KC
77.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.142 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.111 vs Gardner Minshew (LV) -0.098 EPA/dropback
  • KC offense: +0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LV 19
–
KC 27
Projected margin: KC by 8 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

LV

Nate Hobbs CB Out Ankle
Zamir White RB Out Quadricep
Alexander Mattison RB Questionable Ankle

KC

Spencer Shrader K Out Right Hamstring
Cam Jones LB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 17
–
KC 19

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:09 FG KC (10:09) 49-M.Wright 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. LV 0 – KC 3
  • Q2 11:06 FG LV (11:06) 2-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 3 – KC 3
  • Q2 02:19 TD KC (2:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 84-Ju.Watson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [44-K.Chaisson]. LV 3 – KC 9
  • Q3 08:44 FG KC (8:44) 49-M.Wright 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. LV 3 – KC 13
  • Q3 03:15 FG KC (3:15) 49-M.Wright 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. LV 3 – KC 16
  • Q3 01:50 TD LV (1:50) 12-A.O'Connell pass deep right to 89-B.Bowers for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 9 – KC 16
  • Q4 15:00 TD LV (15:00) 12-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 11-T.Tucker for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 16 – KC 16
  • Q4 09:57 FG KC (9:57) 49-M.Wright 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. LV 17 – KC 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 4 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (10:09) 49-M.Wright 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 19 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (6:40) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to KC 23, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-56-A.Burney.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 20 at the 37
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 65%

    (2:30) 14-M.Araiza punts 29 yards to LV 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-D.Turner.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (11:06) 2-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 16 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:08) 14-M.Araiza punts 46 yards to LV 36, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-D.Turner pushed ob at LV 45 for 9 yards (14-M.Araiza).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 38
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 62%

    (6:00) 2-D.Carlson 56 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 11 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:06) 6-A.Cole punts 39 yards to KC 16, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds. PENALTY on LV-34-T.Harper, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at KC 16.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 80%

    (11:48) 8-A.Abdullah up the middle to KC 30 for no gain (32-N.Bolton, 90-C.Omenihu).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 19 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 89%

    (8:44) 49-M.Wright 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 3 at the 17
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 94%

    (3:15) 49-M.Wright 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 11 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:16) 14-M.Araiza punts 52 yards to LV 19, Center-41-J.Winchester. 8-A.Abdullah pushed ob at LV 31 for 12 yards (54-L.Chenal).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 14 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (9:57) 49-M.Wright 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 9 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:58) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to KC 17, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 17-M.Hardman to KC 25 for 8 yards (43-K.Mauga).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (5:27) 14-M.Araiza punts 54 yards to LV 14, Center-41-J.Winchester. 8-A.Abdullah to LV 32 for 18 yards (30-C.Roland-Wallace).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 11 at the 40 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 57%

    (2:21) 2-D.Carlson 58 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 44 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 47%

    (2:03) 14-M.Araiza punts 36 yards to LV 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 8-A.Abdullah.