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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 30

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 8-A.Abdullah up the middle to KC 30 for no gain (32-N.Bolton, 90-C.Omenihu).

The Three Options

GO +2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.08 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model