Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 72

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 19

(6:58) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to KC 17, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 17-M.Hardman to KC 25 for 8 yards (43-K.Mauga).

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.81 EP
65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 72, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model