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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 68

Kansas City Chiefs 19 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(5:27) 14-M.Araiza punts 54 yards to LV 14, Center-41-J.Winchester. 8-A.Abdullah to LV 32 for 18 yards (30-C.Roland-Wallace).

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 68, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 26, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model