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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 16 at the 82

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 14-M.Araiza punts 46 yards to LV 36, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-D.Turner pushed ob at LV 45 for 9 yards (14-M.Araiza).

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.83 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 82, worth -4.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 40, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model