Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 19 at the 69

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

(6:40) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to KC 23, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-56-A.Burney.

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.44 EP
76% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 69, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model