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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 9

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(11:06) 2-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.23 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 9, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model