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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
@
LA Home

Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2024-11-24 · 20:20 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

PHI
53.1%
LA
46.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.183 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LA offense: +0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • PHI on 3 more days rest than LA

Predicted Final Score

PHI 25
–
LA 23
Projected margin: PHI by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

PHI

DeVonta Smith WR Out Hamstring
Britain Covey WR Questionable Shoulder

LA

Charles Woods CB Out Ankle
K.T. Leveston T Out Ankle
Rob Havenstein T Doubtful Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 37
–
LA 20

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:17 FG PHI (5:17) 4-J.Elliott 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 3 – LA 0
  • Q1 01:06 TD LA (1:06) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 3 – LA 6
  • Q2 06:20 FG PHI (6:20) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 6 – LA 7
  • Q2 01:32 TD PHI (1:32) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 11-A.Brown (37-Q.Lake). The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 11-A.Brown for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 12 – LA 7
  • Q3 15:00 TD PHI (15:00) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 19 – LA 7
  • Q3 10:55 TD LA (10:55) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-D.Robinson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 20 – LA 13
  • Q3 06:22 TD PHI (6:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell left guard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 26 – LA 14
  • Q4 10:33 FG PHI (10:33) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 30 – LA 14
  • Q4 02:54 TD PHI (2:54) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left tackle for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 36 – LA 14
  • Q4 01:12 TD LA (1:12) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 10-C.Kupp for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 37 – LA 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 99%

    (5:17) 4-J.Elliott 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 18 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:47) 10-B.Mann punts 54 yards to LA 10, Center-49-R.Lovato. 19-X.Smith to LA 21 for 11 yards (42-O.Burks).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 4 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (11:48) 42-E.Evans punts 37 yards to PHI 36, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (6:20) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 18 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (4:24) 42-E.Evans punts 48 yards to PHI 30, Center-47-A.Ward. 18-B.Covey to PHI 38 for 8 yards (88-J.Whittington).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (:33) 42-E.Evans punts 28 yards to PHI 37, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 7 at the 48
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 41%

    (:07) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts left tackle to PHI 48 for -4 yards (97-M.Hoecht).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 36%

    (4:01) (No Huddle) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-P.Nacua pushed ob at PHI 21 for 29 yards (34-I.Rodgers). PHI-19-J.Sweat was injured during the play.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 18 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 83%

    (1:36) 16-J.Karty 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (10:33) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 64%

    (7:42) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 5-T.Atwell pushed ob at PHI 32 for 7 yards (27-Q.Mitchell) [3-N.Smith].

  • Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 36%

    (1:56) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 5-T.Atwell to PHI 38 for 12 yards (42-O.Burks).