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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 13

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(6:20) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.02 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 13, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 23, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model