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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 39

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 30

What Actually Happened

(7:42) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 5-T.Atwell pushed ob at PHI 32 for 7 yards (27-Q.Mitchell) [3-N.Smith].

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.49 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 39, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.26 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 48, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model