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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 18 at the 29

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 27

What Actually Happened

(1:36) 16-J.Karty 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.12 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 29, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 39, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model