Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 18 at the 64

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Los Angeles Rams 7

(12:47) 10-B.Mann punts 54 yards to LA 10, Center-49-R.Lovato. 19-X.Smith to LA 21 for 11 yards (42-O.Burks).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.75 EP
72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 64, worth -3.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model