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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 48

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(:07) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts left tackle to PHI 48 for -4 yards (97-M.Hoecht).

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +1.32 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 48, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.65 EP