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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 50

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 27

What Actually Happened

(4:01) (No Huddle) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-P.Nacua pushed ob at PHI 21 for 29 yards (34-I.Rodgers). PHI-19-J.Sweat was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.83 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 50, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.08 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model